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richard.goode(at)russiana
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 Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 7:44 am Post subject: M14P Pricing and availability |
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M14P Pricing and availability
I am sure that people consider me biased because I am in the business of selling engines.
However I see the issues as being: - A conventional market is balanced by having approximately equal amounts of supply and demand.
- The M14P market is extremely unconventional, in that it began in the early nineties with large supplies of both unused engines and factory zero-timed ones available in Russia and other parts of Eastern Europe.
- The last genuine new serial production engine was made in 1994. Since then small numbers have been made from previously manufactured forgings/castings/sub-assemblies etc.
- The market was for a long time stabilised by the engines from Shadetree, who had about 120 unused but old stock engines. I think that I am right in saying that the last was sold about two years ago, and for about US $28,000. Of course these were genuine engines; known history; properly conserved and stored.
- For the last 12 or so years, the worldwide Yak and Sukhoi community (600 plus aircraft) have been slowly working their way through an existing stock of engines that were bought cheaply which represented fantastic value. Inevitably, as the supply dwindles the price will go up.
- We then have homebuilt aircraft - my estimate is that there are a good 300 Pitts-12; Moose etc aircraft being built, and all of course needing engines.
- The other factor to consider is that in most parts of the world, except the US, we have to observe factory TBOs. That is 750 hours for a new M14P and 500 hours if it is in a single seat aircraft, or after overhaul. This means that we have to change what appear to be perfectly good engines when these times are reached.
- As I have previously said, the Voronezh Mechanical Plant are currently making 100 new engines for a Russian Ministry of Transport contract. These engines are being sold at US $62,000 each. OK, it is a government contract; no one worries about prices, but that figure is now in the minds of the Russians, and it is not easy to dissuade the old Soviet mentality that runs this factory.
- What is the price of a factory new geared and supercharged Lycoming / Continental? US$60,000? Also Russian manufacturing is desperately inefficient, and while they will benefit from low wage costs and material costs (although both of these are dramatically increasing) factory inefficiencies put prices up considerably.
- Then we have currency fluctuations - no one needs telling that the US $ has dropped compared with virtually all currencies, and including, by a significant amount, the Russian Rouble. This in itself will increase the price of anything coming from Europe or Eastern Europe into the US market. It was US 95 cents to a Euro now US $1.55.
- The simple fact is that there are virtually no genuine; properly conserved and stored new but "old stock" engines left. I have always bought any that I have found (we have sold over ninety of these in the last fifteen years), and the most recent one that I have bought was about a year ago - and I still have not been able to get it out of Russia due to Putin's export controls which have absolutely paralysed everything that is aviation-related.
- If the engine at US $32,000 is good - I do not think that is a bad price, and I suspect that those who laugh at it today might well be kicking themselves for not buying it in three years time.
- Our zero-timed engines come from Vedeneyev themselves, and, I am sure we are not considered to be cheap. I am no economist but the problem with the unpredictability of this market is not the price that I have paid for an engine, but the price that I will have to pay to replace it!
- Of course, with increasing prices, there becomes more and more scope for enterprising companies to overhaul engines.
- Obviously good companies like Barrett; Carl Hays are working on this, but the real problem is that the Russians have always closely guarded all overhaul paperwork, but more importantly the supply of major components which one really does need to perform proper overhauls. Of course these can be made, but at huge cost.
In my humble view, the good news is that M14P engine supply and overhauls will continue. The bad news is that I am sure that prices will continue to go up, and believe me I would be far happier if they did not and the market was stable!
Richard Goode Aerobatics
Rhodds Farm
Lyonshall
Herefordshire
HR5 3LW
United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0) 1544 340 120
Fax: +44 (0) 1544 340 129
www.russianaeros.com
[quote][b]
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fish(at)aviation-tech.com
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| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 9:37 am Post subject: M14P Pricing and availability |
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Richard,
Reading between the lines, engines should still be relativy
cheap here in the US. My reasoning for this is, if you have
to replace your engines at low times. We can still use them
in as removed condition here!
Where the kink would come from, is engines being returned
overseas to use for overhaul. So the questions is are we
going through enough engines to continue to supply cores to
Europe for rebuild?
I would envision an evolving supply line would go something
like, Europians purchase a New/rebult engine and run for
500-700 Hours. Then sell the engine to someone here (with
500-700 hrs on it), we run it to runout. We then use it for
a core when purchasing an engine from someone in Europe
(when purchasing a 500-700 hr eng), who then trades it in as
a core for a new rebuild.
On the flip side, I have said for years that prices would be
going up and we will eventually start building parts here
for our aircraft. Some parts (Say Carbs, cases, ect) will be
rebuilt. But new cylinders/pistons, Rings, ect; with enough
demand will be manufactured here.
Anouther option is for someone to attempt to change the TBO
required. This would most easily be done in Russia/Romaina
then in each country in Europe (I beleive also Canada and
Australia). This would have the effect of reducing demand,
helping to keep prices down.
Fly Safe
John Fischer
Yak-52, N213YA
California City, CA
----- Original Message Follows -----
From: "Richard Goode" <richard.goode(at)russianaeros.com>
To: "YAK USA LIST" <yak-list(at)matronics.com>
Subject: M14P Pricing and availability
Date: Tue, 24 Jun 2008 16:40:21 +0100
| Quote: | M14P Pricing and availability
I am sure that people consider me biased because I am in
the business of selling engines.
However I see the issues as being:
a.. A conventional market is balanced by having
approximately equal amounts of supply and demand.
b.. The M14P market is extremely unconventional, in that
it began in the early nineties with large supplies of both
unused engines and factory zero-timed ones available in
Russia and other parts of Eastern Europe.
c.. The last genuine new serial production engine was
made in 1994. Since then small numbers have been made
from previously manufactured
forgings/castings/sub-assemblies etc.
d.. The market was for a long time stabilised by the
engines from Shadetree, who had about 120 unused but old
stock engines. I think that I am right in saying that
the last was sold about two years ago, and for about US
$28,000. Of course these were genuine engines; known
history; properly conserved and stored.
e.. For the last 12 or so years, the worldwide Yak and
Sukhoi community (600 plus aircraft) have been slowly
working their way through an existing stock of engines
that were bought cheaply which represented fantastic
value. Inevitably, as the supply dwindles the price will
go up.
f.. We then have homebuilt aircraft - my estimate is
that there are a good 300 Pitts-12; Moose etc aircraft
being built, and all of course needing engines.
g.. The other factor to consider is that in most parts
of the world, except the US, we have to observe factory
TBOs. That is 750 hours for a new M14P and 500 hours if
it is in a single seat aircraft, or after overhaul. This
means that we have to change what appear to be perfectly
good engines when these times are reached.
h.. As I have previously said, the Voronezh Mechanical
Plant are currently making 100 new engines for a Russian
Ministry of Transport contract. These engines are being
sold at US $62,000 each. OK, it is a government contract;
no one worries about prices, but that figure is now in the
minds of the Russians, and it is not easy to dissuade the
old Soviet mentality that runs this factory.
i.. What is the price of a factory new geared and
supercharged Lycoming / Continental? US$60,000? Also
Russian manufacturing is desperately inefficient, and
while they will benefit from low wage costs and material
costs (although both of these are dramatically increasing)
factory inefficiencies put prices up considerably.
j.. Then we have currency fluctuations - no one needs
telling that the US $ has dropped compared with virtually
all currencies, and including, by a significant amount,
the Russian Rouble. This in itself will increase the
price of anything coming from Europe or Eastern Europe
into the US market. It was US 95 cents to a Euro now US
$1.55.
k.. The simple fact is that there are virtually no
genuine; properly conserved and stored new but "old stock"
engines left. I have always bought any that I have found
(we have sold over ninety of these in the last fifteen
years), and the most recent one that I have bought was
about a year ago - and I still have not been able to get
it out of Russia due to Putin's export controls which have
absolutely paralysed everything that is aviation-related.
l.. If the engine at US $32,000 is good - I do not think
that is a bad price, and I suspect that those who laugh at
it today might well be kicking themselves for not buying
it in three years time.
m.. Our zero-timed engines come from Vedeneyev
themselves, and, I am sure we are not considered to be
cheap. I am no economist but the problem with the
unpredictability of this market is not the price that I
have paid for an engine, but the price that I will have to
pay to replace it!
n.. Of course, with increasing prices, there becomes
more and more scope for enterprising companies to overhaul
engines.
o.. Obviously good companies like Barrett; Carl Hays are
working on this, but the real problem is that the Russians
have always closely guarded all overhaul paperwork, but
more importantly the supply of major components which one
really does need to perform proper overhauls. Of course
these can be made, but at huge cost. In my humble view,
the good news is that M14P engine supply and overhauls
will continue. The bad news is that I am sure that
prices will continue to go up, and believe me I would be
far happier if they did not and the market was stable!
Richard Goode Aerobatics
Rhodds Farm
Lyonshall
Herefordshire
HR5 3LW
United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0) 1544 340 120
Fax: +44 (0) 1544 340 129
www.russianaeros.com
|
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Dale
Joined: 30 May 2007
Posts: 178
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| Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 7:20 am Post subject: Re: M14P Pricing and availability |
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Hello
I have been in contact over the years with the usual suspects that have parts for our engines. as a interesting note there seems to be a large number of engine cylinders sitting around not being used ( I didn't say they were for sale as of right now ) and other parts as well. I also know that a large number of engines are sitting around doing nothing but collecting dust in hangars waiting for someone to wear out the other one on the plane, which may never happen or to finish a project that may never happen. If you look at the number of hours being flown by a few it would seem to be a lot. However a lot of planes are not being flown that much. How many people have planes with low hours that are 20 years old with the same engine. I was told by Precision Engines that we have a never ending supply of parts for the large radial engines , enough to last forever in their words. They should know. This is because of the number built and slow down of use over the years. This scenario could also play out for the M-14 as well. I'd hate to be sitting on a bunch of Corvette engines thinking that all the Corvettes would wear out. Think about it. When was the last time one of those had 200,000 miles on the odometer.
I don't think one should panic but realize everything is available at a cost and one should weigh that against need. A lot of people don't fly their planes much because they are afraid of wear and tear and trying to hold the value to the sell to the next owner. Those planes may never wear out or need a engine for another 20 years. How many hangars at your field have planes sitting in them and have not moved in 10 years. Some day when all those people die ( mostly people in their 60's and 70's now ) and the family's sell them in the next 10 years we will have a glut of all kinds of planes and parts because the young generation coming up can't afford to get a license, pay the insurance if they can get it, hangar it and pay for maint. Planes might get real cheap for other reasons than gas prices.
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Ernie
Joined: 11 Jan 2006
Posts: 513
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| Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 7:56 am Post subject: M14P Pricing and availability |
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Consensus where I live is that an engines worst enemy is lack of use
not over use. I had a 300 hr engine in my Bonanza, when I had to have
it torn down because of a prop strike, it was found that the cams and
lifters were all rusted. I had been flying the plane about 20 hrs per
year.
Put an hour per week on and engine, and change the oil religiously,
and the engine should last virtually forever. Let anything just sit
(other than a well pickled engine) and it will rot, this applies to
planes, cars, boats (I have LOTS of experience with the latter and
diesel engines).
Ernie
On Wed, Jun 25, 2008 at 11:20 AM, Dale <hdinamic(at)qwest.net> wrote:
| Quote: |
Hello
I have been in contact over the years with the usual suspects that have parts for our engines. as a interesting note there seems to be a large number of engine cylinders sitting around not being used ( I didn't say they were for sale as of right now ) and other parts as well. I also know that a large number of engines are sitting around doing nothing but collecting dust in hangars waiting for someone to wear out the other one on the plane, which may never happen or to finish a project that may never happen. If you look at the number of hours being flown by a few it would seem to be a lot. However a lot of planes are not being flown that much. How many people have planes with low hours that are 20 years old with the same engine. I was told by Precision Engines that we have a never ending supply of parts for the large radial engines , enough to last forever in their words. They should know. This is because of the number built and slow down of use over the years. This scena
r!
|
| Quote: | io could also play out for the M-14 as well. I'd hate to be sitting on a bunch of Corvette engines thinking that all the Corvettes would wear out. Think about it. When was the last time one of those had 200,000 miles on the odometer.
I don't think one should panic but realize everything is available at a cost and one should weigh that against need. A lot of people don't fly their planes much because they are afraid of wear and tear and trying to hold the value to the sell to the next owner. Those planes may never wear out or need a engine for another 20 years. How many hangars at your field have planes sitting in them and have not moved in 10 years. Some day when all those people die ( mostly people in their 60's and 70's now ) and the family's sell them in the next 10 years we will have a glut of all kinds of planes and parts because the young generation coming up can't afford to get a license, pay the insurance if they can get it, hangar it and pay for maint. Planes might get real cheap for other reasons than gas prices.
Read this topic online here:
http://forums.matronics.com/viewtopic.php?p=189756#189756
|
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buddairbum(at)cox.net
Guest
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| Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 8:45 am Post subject: M14P Pricing and availability |
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You're absolutely right.
Case in point: the IO-360's in S-2A Pitts seldom make it to the 1400 hour
TBO because it's the kind of airplane that isn't flown often. My last engine
(my third) went to 2800 hours, had 76 pounds in all four holes and burned
one quart in 12 hours with perfect oil analysis. I fly it an average 350
hours a year, spread evenly with few down times except when I'm at
airshows, change oil at 25 hours Hobbs (20 hours tach), have a separate full
flow oil filter and aftermarket air filter. Every single one of those hours
sees a minimum of 8 landings,so it's not babied. AND, I'm in a dry climate
(AZ), which helps.
If you want 'em to last, fly the snot out of them and change the oil often.
bd
On 6/25/08 8:54 AM, "Ernest Martinez" <erniel29(at)gmail.com> wrote:
| Quote: |
Consensus where I live is that an engines worst enemy is lack of use
not over use. I had a 300 hr engine in my Bonanza, when I had to have
it torn down because of a prop strike, it was found that the cams and
lifters were all rusted. I had been flying the plane about 20 hrs per
year.
Put an hour per week on and engine, and change the oil religiously,
and the engine should last virtually forever. Let anything just sit
(other than a well pickled engine) and it will rot, this applies to
planes, cars, boats (I have LOTS of experience with the latter and
diesel engines).
Ernie
On Wed, Jun 25, 2008 at 11:20 AM, Dale <hdinamic(at)qwest.net> wrote:
>
>
> Hello
> I have been in contact over the years with the usual suspects that have parts
> for our engines. as a interesting note there seems to be a large number of
> engine cylinders sitting around not being used ( I didn't say they were for
> sale as of right now ) and other parts as well. I also know that a large
> number of engines are sitting around doing nothing but collecting dust in
> hangars waiting for someone to wear out the other one on the plane, which may
> never happen or to finish a project that may never happen. If you look at
> the number of hours being flown by a few it would seem to be a lot. However a
> lot of planes are not being flown that much. How many people have planes
> with low hours that are 20 years old with the same engine. I was told by
> Precision Engines that we have a never ending supply of parts for the large
> radial engines , enough to last forever in their words. They should know.
> This is because of the number built and slow down of use over the years. This
> scena
r!
> io could also play out for the M-14 as well. I'd hate to be sitting on a
> bunch of Corvette engines thinking that all the Corvettes would wear out.
> Think about it. When was the last time one of those had 200,000 miles on the
> odometer.
> I don't think one should panic but realize everything is available at a cost
> and one should weigh that against need. A lot of people don't fly their
> planes much because they are afraid of wear and tear and trying to hold the
> value to the sell to the next owner. Those planes may never wear out or need
> a engine for another 20 years. How many hangars at your field have planes
> sitting in them and have not moved in 10 years. Some day when all those
> people die ( mostly people in their 60's and 70's now ) and the family's sell
> them in the next 10 years we will have a glut of all kinds of planes and
> parts because the young generation coming up can't afford to get a license,
> pay the insurance if they can get it, hangar it and pay for maint. Planes
> might get real cheap for other reasons than gas prices.
>
>
>
>
> Read this topic online here:
>
> http://forums.matronics.com/viewtopic.php?p=189756#189756
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
|
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